Author Danny Vinik

Republicans Can’t Stop Obamacare Anymore

Danny Vinik 4 Comments

There is this weird meme going around conservatives that they can pressure vulnerable Senate Democrats into supporting bills that severely hamper Obamacare. I have no idea why they think this possibly has a chance of happening.

In a piece at the Washington Post yesterday, Ed Rogers pontificated about a House bill that would allow all health insurers to continue selling any plan that they offered in 2013 on the exchange in 2014, no matter if those plans lived up to the new requirements imposed in Obamacare. The law would undermine the entire health care law, yet Rogers thinks it has a legitimate chance of passing the Senate:

If the bill passes the House, it will be interesting to see if the Senate can avoid a vote. We can assume that all 45 Republicans senators will vote for the bill; add in the 14 Democratic senators who are up for re-election in 2014 and the number of Democratic senators who can’t stomach the lies, and you might get to 60 votes.

Rogers is entirely misreading the Senate here. First of all, many of those 14 Democratic senators are not vulnerable and will stick by the law, but even the ones that are vulnerable are not going to run away from it at this point. Their comments right now are entirely about messaging. They are already tied to Obamacare, whether they like it or not. However, their calls for grandfathering in more plans are in response to Obama’s lie. They know that it doesn’t have a chance of passing. They are scoring political points by voicing those opinions without any risk to the actual law. It’s a win-win. Under no circumstance would Harry Reid bring up such a bill for a vote. Republicans can rightly earn their own political points by pointing the spotlight at Obama’s lie and milking it for all it’s worth. But don’t confuse these political moves for ones that have an actual chance of becoming law.

Another conservative, Mickey Kaus, suggested on Twitter that Senate Democrats could panic and pass an individual mandate delay. Once again, this is working under the same misguided belief that Democrats are willing to undermine the law. They aren’t. Unless there are major issues with HealthCare.gov a month from now, the individual mandate will not be delayed. That decision has nothing to do with Senate Democrats or House Republicans. The White House will decide based on the functionality of the site.

No matter how many times I and others repeat it, many conservatives seem unable to understand the fact that Democrats are sticking by the law. The politics of it don’t matter anymore. Period. Right now, the greatest threat to Obamacare is HealthCare.gov. If the website doesn’t work, the law is in trouble. If the White House fixes it, then the success or failure of Obamacare depends on the policy outcomes of it. Is insurance cheaper? Do Americans like their new plans? Is consumer choice limited? All of these policy questions and more will be answered in the upcoming months (assuming HealthCare.gov works).

At this point, Republicans can do nothing to stop it. That ship has sailed. Obamacare isn’t going anywhere, no matter what cleverly titled bills House Republicans propose. Conservatives would do well to learn that before they embark on another foolish conquest like the government shutdown that has no chance of success.

It Doesn’t Matter If Virginia Was A Referendum On Obamacare

Danny Vinik 1 Comment

My post earlier focused on the fact that there were so many unique factors affecting Virginia’s gubernatorial contest that it was impossible to use the results as any indication of the national political sentiment. One area in particular that reporters have settled on is whether the election was a referendum on Obamacare, and if so, what it means. Michael Barone and James Hohmann think it was and that Obamacare almost cost McAuliffe the governorship. Ezra Klein and Greg Sargent disagree. Igor Volsky thinks Obamacare was the biggest winner from last night’s election.

Here’s my question: who cares?

I have yet to see anyone give a legitimate explanation for why it matters whether or not last night’s election was a referendum on Obamacare. It matters even less if Obamacare was a winner or a loser. Virginians elected a Democratic governor in an off-year election, but exit polls suggest that voters opposed Obamacare 53 to 45 percent. Those are the facts. Did Ken Cuccinelli’s last-minute decision to make Obamacare a focal point of his campaign increase his vote share? Maybe. I don’t know. There are no exit polls on it for us to find out.

But in the end, this doesn’t matter at all. Whether or not Virginians approve of Obamacare right now isn’t important, because the earliest Obamacare is on the ballot again will be November 2013, after the law’s been implemented, the insurance market has settled and millions more people have coverage. Maybe Americans will find they are paying more, have fewer choices of doctors and are paying for benefits they don’t need. Maybe they will love the subsidies, the increased security and the cheaper options. No one knows for sure how Obamacare is going to play out, but how it does will determine what people think of the law.

President Obama and Senate Democrats are not going to back down. After a Supreme Court challenge, the 2012 election and a government shutdown, we are just a few short months away from finding out if Obamacare works. We’re past the politics of it. It may have affected the Virginia election, but even if it did, does it matter? Opinions are going to change depending on whether the law fails or succeeds.

Neither party should look at last night’s election as evidence that they should use Obamacare in the 2014 election. Instead, they need to monitor public opinion over the next nine months. If people are happy with the law, Republicans are in trouble. If not, Democrats will be. Last night’s election has no bearing on that. The only exception to this, as Alex MacGillis points out, is that McAuliffe’s victory increases the odds that Virginia will expand Medicaid. That would certainly be a huge victory for Obamacare and for the 400,000 uninsured Virginians who fall into the doughnut hole. But nevertheless, that’s a policy outcome of the election. It’s not a political one. Obamacare is now the law of the land and how it works will determine its favorability. Whether or not Virginians voted on it last night means absolutely nothing going forward. Let’s stop pretending it does.