High Skilled Immigration From Mexico Increased After NAFTA

That’s the finding from Woodrow Wilson Center COMEXI scholar Miguel Jimenez, who presented his summer-long research on labor market integration within the NAFTA region this morning. Jimenez has been working at the institute on migration patterns within the region before and after the 1994 free trade agreement took effect. Many of the findings were not particularly surprising, such as increased trade between the U.S. and Mexico or Mexicans rising as a share of the U.S. population. But a couple of things did stand out.

First, high skilled immigration in Mexico and Canada has dramatically increased since the signing of NAFTA, at the expense of the United Kingdom, Japan, France and other countries as Jimenez shows:HLB VisaIn addition to Mexico and China, India’s percentage of high skilled immigrants  admitted into the U.S. also rose, but Jimenez explained that this was not a result of NAFTA (which didn’t directly affect India), but due to India’s focus on graduating masters students in STEM subjects. South Korea saw a modest increase as well. Those four countries also saw their share of employee transfers into the U.S. on intra-company visas increase as well.

Second, Jimenez’s research confirms earlier predictions that the Great Recession would reduce not incentives for Mexicans to come from the United States. Worse, the percentage of Mexican immigrants coming to the U.S. on work-related visas has fallen dramatically, from a high of 16% in 2008 to less than half of that last year.

Jimenez saved his most surprising finding for last when he presented the percentage of skilled and unskilled workers admitted into the U.S. in 1996 and 2011:

High Skill vs Low Skill Mexico Immigration

Jimenez looked upon this as a sign that greater openness between the U.S. and Mexico, such as creating a visa exception like the U.S. has with Canada and Bermuda, could be beneficial for both nations.

“It’s worth thinking about how changing this would improve the relationship,” he said.

Nevertheless, Jimenez concluded his presentation with a simple, but positive summary of immigration flows in the NAFTA region: “the system works.”

Midday Links

Charities Should Perform Experiments

The most recent episode of This American Life spends the first part of the show examining two different charities, GiveDirectly and Heifer International. GiveDirectly is a revolutionary new organization that gives money to poor people in Kenya. Its philosophy is pretty straightforward: poor people know what they need most so just give them the money to do so. It has seen remarkable results in Kenya and The Life You Can Save ranks it as the fourth most effective charity. It was started by a group of grad students in a development economics class who decided to give money to Africans and see what happened. More importantly, they’re very data-centric and are committed to figuring out whether giving poor Africans money is effective. The grad students are so committed to it that they’re running a randomized controlled trial where researchers are traveling to two villages right next to each other, one where the residents received money from GiveDirectly and one where they didn’t. It’s a massive survey with hundreds of questions that are trying to isolate down how the money affected all aspects of the Kenyans’ lives:

Have health outcomes improved? Has your income improved? Have you been able to feed yourself and have basic nutrition? How have family dynamics evolved? Do you feel like you have more respect in the family? School attendance, all these sorts of things. You do those in both cases and you compare.

Heifer International, on the other hand, takes a different approach to helping poor Africans: it gives them a cow. Planet Money’s Jacob Goldstein, who travelled to Kenya for this report, commented on how large the cows were:

And let’s just say right off, these were some very impressive cows. They looked strong and healthy. They looked like they could eat the other cows we saw in Kenya.

You can imagine how helpful a strong, healthy cow would be for poor, rural Kenyans. Overall, both charities are looking to improve the lives of impoverished Africans, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be looking to figure out which charity is best at doing so. Yet, that is basically Heifer International’s position, at least according to the Vice President of Heifer’s Africa programs, Elizabeth Bintliff. GiveDirectly challenged Heifer International to a charity-vs-charity competition in the same manner of the experiment above. They’d take two villages right next to each other and GiveDirectly would give money to residents of one while Heifer would give cows to the residents of another. Then they’d have independent researchers come in and collect all the data and figure out which one improved the lives of the Kenyans the most. This is the exact type of research that charities need to be doing. But Bintliff declined:

I mean, as an African woman, that sounds to me like a terrible idea. I mean, it sounds like an experiment, and we’re not about experiments. These are lives of real people and we have to do what we believe is correct. We can’t make experiments with people’s lives. They’re just– they’re people. It’s too important.

Bintliff obviously is very committed to Heifer and has devoted her life to helping Africans. It’s very noble, but her hesitance to use data hinders the ability of charities to help people. Maybe Heifer is very effective at improving the lives of Africans. Maybe it isn’t. We don’t know right now, because we don’t have the data. Yet, we have every ability to collect the data! Researchers actually can do a pretty good job of measuring happiness. And I understand that Bintliff doesn’t want to perform experiments, but charities will be so much more effective and help poor Africans even more if we do perform experiments. It’s a shame, because GiveDirectly has seen such promising results that I’d be fascinated to see how Heifer stacks up. But it looks like we’ll never know. In the end, Bintliff’s refusal to perform the experiments hurts those who she’s looking to help.