Why Middle Class Plan Cancellations and “Rate Shock” are the Big Stories

Jonathan Chait and Kevin Drum both have posts today that lament that media has focused on cases of “rate shock” amongst the middle class instead of necessarily focusing on the millions of people receiving subsidies and those with pre-existing conditions finally being able to purchase insurance. Here’s Chait:

Why has their plight attained such singular prominence? Several factors have come together. The news media has a natural attraction to bad news over good. “Millions Set to Gain Low-Cost Insurance” is a less attractive story than “Florida Woman Facing Higher Costs.” Obama overstated the case when he repeatedly assured Americans that nobody would lose their current health-care plan. There’s also an economic bias at work. Victims of rate shock are middle-class, and their travails, in general, tend to attract far more lavish coverage than the problems of the poor. (Did you know that on November 1, millions of Americans suffered painful cuts to nutritional assistance? Not a single Sunday-morning talk-show mentioned it.)

Drum adds:

In addition, I can only assume that writing about the people who are benefiting from Obamacare would strike DC reporters as a little too much like shilling for the Obama administration.

The real reason that the media has focused on the middle class has three reason. First, Obama lied to them about keeping their plans (Chait mentions this). Liberals continue to underestimate how infuriating this is to the average American. Obama sold the law on the premise that anyone who liked their plans would get to keep them. They would get to keep their network and doctors as well. This was a crystal clear message from the president so that people wouldn’t be spooked about change. This has nothing to do with whether this change is necessary (it is). The fact is Obama lied to get his law passed. The Americans he lied to are predominantly middle class ones who are purchasing insurance through the exchange and are not eligible for Medicare. Is it surprising that the media’s attention has been focused on the people Obama lied to in order to pass the Affordable Care Act?

Second, liberals bought into the framework that Obamacare would be judged based on “rate shock.” This isn’t necessarily a fair way to judge law. Some people will pay more for more comprehensive coverage, others will pay less for better coverage, some will pay more for worse coverage and others will have the chance to purchase insurance for the first time. The effects of Obamacare are more than just the sticker price of insurance, even after subsidies are factored in. The law requires insurers to cover 10 essential health benefits, places limits on the deductible, and eliminates the cap on lifetime costs. These are all important aspects of Obamacare that drive up rates.

The problem is that for months now, health wonks have spent most of their time arguing about rates under Obamacare. That’s been the focal point of discussion. Not surprisingly, the law is being judged based on “rate shock” now. However, to be fair to the law’s supporters, this was always going to put them at a disadvantage as the easiest way to evaluate Obamacare is by what happens with insurance rates.

Finally, the failures of HealthCare.gov have ensured that the focus will be on all those receiving cancellation letters. If the website functioned properly, many Americans who found out their plans were cancelled would log on to the federal exchange, see they are eligible for subsidies and cheaper plans, and become happy supporters of the law. Others would find out their plan is still more expensive and continue to be furious at the administration. But under that scenario, some of the stories of middle class Americans receiving notices that their plans were discontinued would be alleviated. That would help relieve much of the pressure that the White House is under. Unfortunately, they royally screwed up the website.

Thus, the media’s focus on middle class cancellation notices and “rate shock” is the result of Obama’s lie, a misleading framework for evaluating the law and HealthCare.gov’s catastrophic launch. Without the president’s deceit and the marketplace’s struggles, the media would have had many more opportunities to cover the law in a positive light. Unfortunately, the administration never gave them that opportunity.

The Most Important Race Today Is In Alabama

It’s election day today and there are a couple of important races. First, in Virginia, Terry McAuliffe is likely on his way to become governor as he holds a sizeable lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli. Cooch has received little financial support in the race, alienated women with his positions on birth control and has simply been seen as too extreme for most Virginians. There is also a libertarian candidate, Robert Sarvis, on the ballot who has cannibalized some of Cuccinelli’s support. In the lieutenant governor’s race, the Republican Party nominated someone even more radical than Cuccinelli in E.W. Jackson. Democrat Ralph Northam is likely to win in that one. The most competitive race in Virginia is for attorney general where Democrat Mark Herring and Republican Mark Obershain are neck and neck going into today.

Out in New Jersey, Governor Chris Christie is set to win reelection over Democratic candidate Barbara Buono by a sizeable margin. Many commentators believe that Christie has spent the last few days aiming his message not at New Jersey residents, but at Republicans throughout the country in anticipation of a presidential run in 2016.

The most important race, though, is the Republican primary in Alabama’s First Congressional District, a special election after Rep. Jo Bonner took a job at the University of Alabama earlier this year. This race pits the establishment candidate Bradley Byrne against far right winger Dean Young. The winner of today’s primary will easily win the general election in this very red district and both men will likely have identical voting records in Congress.

Byrne, while still very conservative, is supported by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the NRA and other business groups. On the other side, Young has received little support from Tea Party organizations throughout the country. Instead, he has focused his message entirely on social issues, particularly gay marriage, and has tried to out-conservative Byrne. Despite the disadvantage in money and national support, polls show that Young’s strategy may be working. Turnout is expected to be low since it’s a special election in an off-year, an advantage for Young whose extreme rhetoric will rally people to get out and vote.

The implications for this race stretch far beyond Alabama though. This is the chance for the moderate wing of the Republican Party to show that they can defeat a fringe candidate. As Mother Jones’s Tim Murphy points out, there are few, if any, actual policy differences between the two. Instead, this election is symbolic. This is a race that the establishment should win. There are so many things lining up in Byrne’s favor that a loss here will demonstrate what an uphill battle it is for the moderate wing of the party.

Murphy’s piece does a good job outlining Byrne’s advantages:

  • He’s received more money and support than Young
  • He has a solid conservative record
  • Young was unable to name the House GOP Whip or Treasury Secretary (Seriously)
  • Young is a birther
  • Bonner and Jack Edwards, another former Congressman from AL01, endorsed Byrne

This should give Byrne a sizeable lead, but it hasn’t. The race is still very tight. Luckily for the GOP, nominating Young won’t risk losing the seat. The district is too conservative for that to happen. If Young loses, the Tea Party won’t be particularly upset. They realized that there was no purpose in getting involved in this battle as both Young and Byrne will vote the same in the House. All it does is risk an embarrassing defeat. Thus, Tea Party groups have not intervened at all (something Young is not happy about).

The establishment and business wing of the Republican Party thought differently though. They saw a way to defeat an extreme candidate and have made a sincere effort to do so. A victory would be a reminder that they can defeat conservative candidates, but it wouldn’t be much of a win. After all, the limited support Young has received means that the establishment is not really taking on the Tea Party here. They are taking on a radical candidate with almost no outside support. That makes a defeat very embarrassing. Is the establishment so inept that they can’t take a solid conservative candidate, provide him with generous donations and defeat a right-wing nutjob who can’t name the House GOP Whip? That would not be a good sign for the party’s ability to challenge more well-supported Tea Partiers in races next year.

Pro-tip for the White House: Just Be Honest!

I had a conversation on Twitter yesterday with Think Progress’s managing editor, Igor Volsky, about Obamacare and the enrollment numbers that the Obama administration continues to withhold. In a snarky tweet, Volsky asked how knowing daily enrollment data would actually help fix the website. Of course it won’t do anything to fix the website, but that’s not the point. The administration has lied, side stepped questions and been maddeningly vague since HealthCare.gov went online October 1st. Their refusal to release the numbers is just another example of it.

Over the past couple of weeks, administration officials have given “updates” on Obamacare that have said almost nothing. Finally, Jeff Zients, who was recently brought in to clean up this mess, provided more info and a more exact time frame, but it has still been like pulling teeth to get any more info from them. Josh Barro summed this up well a bit ago:

The administration is still behaving like it is trying to get Obamacare enacted, and therefore its top public relations task is to bury negative stories about the law and emphasize the upside, like heavy consumer interest. But this is a mistake. Obamacare is already the law, and its long term political success is going to be determined by its substantive policy success — including whether consumers are able to sign up and get the health coverage they want.

This is exactly right.

It’s not surprising that the administration does not want to release the enrollment figures. I’m sure they aren’t pretty. But so what? How Obamacare is treated in the media right now really doesn’t matter. If the website eventually works and people sign up, all of these initial reports will be forgotten. If it fails, then the law fails and that’s what will be remembered.

More importantly though, Obama has a new trust deficit with the American people. He promised them that if they liked their health care plans, they could keep it. Well, that has been revealed to be a complete lie. Americans are rightfully angry at having been misled so brazenly. Obama needs to regain that trust.

Releasing daily enrollment figures won’t have a major effect on the American people, but it will help around the edges. The president should give a forthright press conference where he levels with the public, accepts blame for HealthCare.gov’s issues and tells everyone its exact status. He should release figures on who has enrolled in the private market versus new Medicare signups as well.

The numbers may not look good, but the vague language that the administration has used to describe the website’s status only feeds the perception that they are hiding something. Why be so secretive right now? There isn’t a good reason unless there is a serious, potentially fatal problem with the law. In addition, this information is going to come out eventually. It’s smarter to release the data now while the coverage of the law is universally negative than to do so later when the law is working better and these reports will crowd out positive stories. Negative articles aren’t going to actually impact whether the law succeeds or not. People are either going to sign up or they won’t. News coverage won’t change that.

Yesterday, White House senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer seemed to back off the administration’s goal of signing up seven million people by March 31st. He instead said it was the CBO’s number and that the White House is trying to sign up as many people as possible. Yet again, the White House won’t give a straight answer. If they don’t think they’re going to hit their goal, say so. If they want to revise the number to shoot for something more achievable, just say it! Be honest! I repeat: unless the law has a major unknown problem, there is no reason to withhold this information. Releasing the figures and giving an honest update about the law will calm the furor over it and will help begin to repair the damage done by Obama’s lie. It’s extraordinarily frustrating that the White House refuses to do so.