Category Economic Policy

The End of Debt-Ceiling Hostage Taking

Danny Vinik 9 Comments

Greg Sargent had a good post yesterday explaining why Democrats are so adamant that they will not give any concessions for raising the debt ceiling:

Democrats, by contrast, don’t believe this constitutes acceptable governing. They don’t believe budget negotiations should proceed under these conditions. They are not making an argument about what the House majority can legally or Constitutionally do; they are making an argument about what they believe the House majority should and shouldn’t do, about what does and doesn’t constitute good governing. They are making an argument about governing norms. The Dem argument is that this practice should be renounced by both sides. Dems believe making concessions under these conditions now will legitimize the GOP demand for negotiations to happen under them, making default later all but certain, because this sort of standoff will happen again and again, ultimately leading to miscalculation and disaster.

Bingo. The key here is that Republicans only have leverage to extract concessions out of Democrats if they really are OK with breaching the debt limit. There are some who are, but the House GOP leadership isn’t. That’s been abundantly clear for weeks now as Boehner has repeatedly commented that the U.S. cannot default on its debts. It’s even clearer if you look at how House Republicans have ramped down their demands.

After Boehner’s plan fell apart in the House yesterday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell stepped back in and quickly brokered a deal that would stave off a default. It funds the government until January 7 and raises the debt ceiling until February 15 while strengthening the income verification requirements in Obamacare. It does not include a delay of the reinsurance fee, of the medical device tax or a ban on the Treasury Department’s use of extraordinary measures. It also sets up a bicameral conference committee with the goal of coming to a budget agreement by December 13.  Make no mistake: this is a Republican surrender. The income verification condition is simply an enforcement of current law. The rest is a clean CR and clean debt ceiling hike, exactly what President Obama and Democrats have been calling for the past month.

Due to parliamentary rules, a single senator (cough Ted Cruz cough) could drag out the Senate bill so a vote doesn’t take place until Saturday or Sunday. If all senators agree by unanimous consent to forego debate on the bill, it can be voted on today and head to the House, but that requires the agreement of all senators. If the bill originates in the House and is passed, the Senate can take it up and vote on it soon after. Thus, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is pushing Boehner to bring it to the floor to speed up this entire process. No matter what though, it looks like the speaker will allow a vote on the bill, which will then pass with mostly Democratic support.

There is a more important point here: This is the end of debt-ceiling hostage taking.

It’s over. Boehner and Co. capitulated completely, because their entire strategy was a bluff. This deal proves that Republicans aren’t willing to breach the debt limit. If Boehner ever threatens to do so again in the future, no one should take it seriously. He no longer has the credibility to make those threats. The debt limit is not an extortion device. A minority party cannot use it to extract a policy concession from the majority. This is the new governing norm.

The House GOP Proposal Is Still Extortion

Danny Vinik 5 Comments

There seems to be some confusion over why the House GOP’s new proposal is still extortion while the Senate deal that Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell brokered yesterday isn’t so let’s break this down.

In both deals, the continuing resolution lasts until January 15 and the debt ceiling is raised until February 7. As the White House has made abundantly clear, these are not concessions from either side. This is simply Congress doing its job.

Here’s how the Senate proposal shapes up:

Republicans get:                                               Democrats Get:

  • Income verification                                        •  Delay of reinsurance fee

There will also be a budget negotiation that occurs under the McConnell-Reid deal. See how both sides get something from each other?

Here’s the new House GOP plan:

Republicans get:                                               Democrats Get:

  • Income verification
  • Two-year delay of medical device tax
  • Version of Vitter Amendment
  • Ban on extraordinary measures

So, what exactly do Democrats get out of this? Nothing. House Republicans are still demanding concessions in return for funding the government and not defaulting. It’s the same hostage-taking tactics they’ve been using all along. Boehner and Co. have reduced their ransom demands significantly, which is why there is a lot of optimism that a deal will eventually get done, but it’s still ransom. That’s why the White House and Senate Democrats are vehemently against this plan. They are adamant that they will not agree to any deal that sets a precedent for using the debt ceiling as an extortion device and the House GOP plan still does that.

SHOCKER: It Was All A Bluff

Danny Vinik 2 Comments

Looks like the House is moving forward with their own bill this morning. Here are the details, from Robert Costa:

  • Continuing Resolution until 1/15
  • Debt Ceiling increase until 2/7
  • Vitter Amendment for members and cabinet members
  • Two-year medical device tax delay
  • Income verification
  • Ban on the use of extraordinary measures

That’s it. Nothing that really undermines Obamacare and no risk of heading over the debt limit. It’s still unclear if this can pass the House. It will likely get little, if any, Democratic support and many House conservatives are not going to be happy. In addition there isn’t anything that Senate Democrats will like so I’m sure they will reject it. I imagine Boehner may still have to break the Hastert Rule in the end with a bill somewhere in between what currently exists in the Senate and this one.

But look at how far the House has come! Boehner was never going to allow us to default. That’s abundantly clear now. In addition, he watered down the Vitter Amendment at the last second because he knew all along how awful it would be for congressional aides. It’s what everyone has been clamoring about for weeks. The House GOP finally admitted it at the last second. As for income verification, this is already part of the law and a number of conservatives have already rejected it as meaningless. A ban on extraordinary measures is a minor concession (and something I support).

That’s what House leadership is now PROPOSING. That’s their offer for opening the government and raising the debt ceiling. In addition, it seems that House Republicans are relatively unified behind this plan (Robert Costa reporting that there won’t be a revolt). We’ll see if that holds true in the end, but it’s important to realize how far the House GOP has come in their demands. They said all along they were willing to breach the debt ceiling if Obamacare wasn’t stopped. Instead, they’re accepting a corporate tax delay, a benefit cut for members, enforcing a part of Obamacare that already exists and a ban on a technical method to extend the debt ceiling. It confirms they were bluffing the entire time.