SD Mayor Bob Filner Has To Go

I should’ve written this post a few weeks ago, but the latest sexual assault allegations against San Diego Mayor Bob Filner leave no doubt that he has to leave office and fast. Better yet, he should be in a jail cell somewhere. This is just truly appalling:

Fernandez, along with Army veteran Gerri Tindley, joins 11 other women who have publicly accused Filner, 70, of making unwanted advances, from groping to verbal passes.

They are also among at least eight female veterans and members of the National Women’s Veterans Association of America (NWVAA) in San Diego who have made accusations against the mayor. Almost all of the women were victims of sexual assault while they were in the military.

The women, like Fernandez, say the former chairman of the House Veterans’ Affairs Committee used his significant power and credentials to access military sexual assault survivors, who they say are less likely to complain.

That’s just so vile. There certainly have been calls for Filner’s resignation over the past month, but they should be even stronger. The evidence against him is solid (he’s already checked himself into therapy, basically admitting he has a problem) and the allegations against him are so nasty. Every newspaper should be out with an editorial demanding that he resign. That’s what makes this graph a little disconcerting:

FilnerThis is a Google Trends search of newspaper headlines over the past 90 days. The first allegation against Filner came on July 11th and the story picked up steam towards the end of the month, but the last couple of weeks have seen a drop in coverage. Maybe this new revelation will cause a firestorm of news stories that force Filner out of office. I hope so. Because this is beyond unacceptable for an elected official, particularly for the Mayor of a major US city. Enough of this: Filner needs to resign. Immediately.

PolitiFact vs. the Liberal Blogosphere

There was a bit of a dust-up between liberal bloggers and the fact checking site PolitiFact yesterday over House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s (R-VA) comment this weekend that the government should be “focused on trying to deal with the ultimate problem, which is this growing deficit.” The deficit isn’t growing. It’s shrinking at a rapid pace, but PolitiFact rated the statement as “half-true.” So, what gives? How can the deficit be shrinking and Cantor’s statement be half-true? Let’s take a look:

Steve Benen, one of the first bloggers to jump on PolitiFact today, wrote about Cantor’s comments the day before. In fact, he quoted the following exchange in his post:

CANTOR: Here is the problem. What we need to have happen is leadership on the part of this president and White House to come to the table finally and say, we’re going to fix the underlying problem that’s driving our deficit. We know that is the entitlement programs and unfunded liability that they are leaving on this generation and the next.

WALLACE: So, are you’re saying you are willing to get — you’re willing, if you could get a compromise on entitlements, then you would give up on the sequestration?

CANTOR: What we have said in the House as Republicans, leadership and members alike, is that we want to fix the real problem. The real problem is entitlements. We’ve also said sequester is not the best way to go about spending reductions. It was, as you know, a default mechanism because Congress couldn’t do the job it was supposed to a couple of years ago. We’ve always said that. But, in fact —

WALLACE: You’re willing to give up on sequestration?

CANTOR: But, in fact, Chris, we’ve always said, president, come join us.

The full interview is here. That exchange is right before Cantor made his false “growing deficit” comment. But clearly, Cantor isn’t talking about the current debt. He’s talking about the long-term deficit. Entitlements are driving our long-term deficit while our current deficit is the result of two wars, the Bush tax cuts, and increased spending on the safety net during the recession. That’s the context of Cantor’s comment and if you are going to grade its truthfulness, you have to take that into account.

That’s what PolitiFact did. They realized that Cantor’s remark was 100% false, but in the context of what he was talking about, Cantor is right. The ultimate problem with the deficit is entitlement spending. Cantor misspoke and that’s why his statement isn’t correct. But it also can’t be called a “Pants on Fire” lie. PolitiFact responded to the criticisms today and pointed all of this out.

Kevin Drum explained this as well and noted that this is the problem with fact-checking in general. When most people think about fact-checking, they want the specific comment checked for accuracy. But this isn’t really fair. How can you analyze something without including the context? Cantor’s comment taken out-of-context is flatly wrong. In context, it makes much more sense and is more Cantor mis-speaking than anything else.

What’s most frustrating about this is that as soon as Benen posted his critique of PolitiFact, it spread around the blogosphere quickly. Paul Krugman, Ed Kilgore, Greg Sargent and Brian Beutler all criticized the fact-checking. All of those are well-respected journalists whose work I read daily. But they chose to look at Cantor’s quote out of context (except for Sargent, who put it in context of the debt ceiling when it actually referred to the problems driving the long-term deficit). Kilgore relied upon Benen’s analysis while Sargent quoted Krugman’s. It’s easy to jump on PolitiFact and make fun of Cantor for his remark, but it just creates more partisan bickering and further harms PolitiFact’s reputation. That’s not helpful for anyone.

Purchasing Health Insurance Right When You Get Sick

This is more of a question than a comment, but Ramesh Ponnuru brings up a point that’s been bugging me a bit in his column in Bloomberg today. He quotes a piece by Kevin Drum who sarcastically asked if FreedomWorks would pay the health care costs of anyone who was convinced by the organization to forego health insurance and then contracted leukemia. Ponnuru responds:

The other thing Drum misses is that people who “contract leukemia” will be able to buy insurance once they’re sick at the same rate they could have gotten it for when they were well. That’s the part of the Obamacare law that its defenders are usually most keen to emphasize. People who go without insurance while they’re healthy may have to pay a tax — although even at that the Internal Revenue Service will be limited in its methods of collection — and may, if they get sick, find their options for getting insurance limited for a few months.

Since insurers can no longer refuse to cover people with pre-existing conditions, that means that if I don’t have health insurance, but get sick, I immediately can purchase a plan that covers my costs. Thus, I avoid paying for health insurance when I’m healthy, but as soon as I need it, I buy it. But does that really work in practice?

Obamacare is supposed to make purchasing health insurance easier through the online exchanges, but that doesn’t mean it will be a straightforward process as you’re sitting in a hospital. And what about all the costs that accrue before you purchase your plan, but while you’re being diagnosed? Or what if something happens that requires a visit to the ER? Or a serious injury that requires immediate surgery and gives you no time to purchase a plan?

You’re going to be left with some major bills at the end. So I don’t think it’s fair to say that people shouldn’t wait to purchase coverage until right when they get sick. Because it won’t always be possible to do so quickly enough to cover the costs. There is a risk in postponing buying health insurance. It’s certainly much less than it was when insurers could refuse to cover you if you had a preexisting condition. But there is some risk still.

Is that risk enough to make it economically sound to purchase coverage? Well that depends. Purchasing a bronze level plan will cost a certain amount depending on your state. Not purchasing a plan will cost you in two ways: the penalty for not paying the individual mandate and the risk-adjusted amount you’ll pay if you get sick and can’t purchase coverage in time to cover all your costs. Now, that’s not a calculation many people will make. That risk-adjusted amount is incredibly hard to determine. But economic theory has demonstrated that people are loss averse – meaning that when the risk of losses exist, people act in risk-averse fashion.

This is an aspect of the law that I haven’t seen get any coverage. I have seen few people challenge the idea that people will be able to buy coverage immediately and not accrue any costs in the meantime. But that is unlikely to be the case. Ponnuru admits as much in his article and proponents of the law would be smart to point it out as well. After all, if people don’t sign up for health insurance (particularly young people), then the law will fail. Showing people that they can still face substantial costs if they decide to purchase coverage just when they get sick is a good way to convince them to sign up.