Where Are All The Playoff Races?

August 3, 2011Danny Vinik 1 Comment

It’s August 3rd so let’s take a look at what to expect for MLB playoff races during the next two months .

In the AL East, the Red Sox lead the Yankees by just one game, but the Yankees are up seven games in the Wild Card race. Cool Standings gives the Sox a 97.3 percent chance of making the postseason while the Bronx Bombers have a 97.7 percent chance. Tampa Bay? They are 10 games back in the Wild Card and have just a 1.3 percent chance of playing baseball in October.

The AL Central boasts zero teams with a positive run-differential (yikes!). The race is tight though as Detroit leads Cleveland by three games. Of course, that’s a decent chunk and gives the Tigers much better odds to make the playoffs than the Indians have (61.3 percent vs. 24.4 percent). In the past two months though, Cleveland is 21-32. To put that in perspective, Kansas City was 22-32 in that time. Yes, the Indians just acquired Ubaldo Jiminez but there’s still a lot of questions around his velocity. Given the Indians performance the past two months, a 24.4 percent chance of making the playoffs seems generous.

In the West, there actually is a good race. Texas and Los Angeles are just a game apart. The teams have gone back and forth all year, but Texas upgraded its bullpen at the deadline while the Angels did nothing. Cool Standings gives Texas 62.7 percent odds at reaching the postseason while the Angels have just a 39.0 percent chance.

So in the American League, I only see the AL West as a real playoff race. Detroit is going to pull away and Boston and New York will battle for the AL East, with the loser earning a playoff berth via the Wild Card. That’s pretty weak overall. Continue reading “Where Are All The Playoff Races?” →

2009 American League Central Preview

April 4, 2009May 23, 2010Danny Vinik Leave a comment

On to the AL Central, the most competitive division in baseball though not the most talented.

Predicted Standings
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Chicago White Sox cliff-lee
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Kansas City Royals

Best Hitter: Miguel Cabrera
Best Pitcher: Cliff Lee

Indians

The Indians have some question marks in both their lineup and pitching staff, but a solid enough core of players to make them a slight favorite in this competitive division. Cliff Lee leads the rotation and is followed by Fausto Carmona, Carl Pavano, Anthony Reyes, and Aaron Laffey. Lee is a strong pitcher, but the end of that staff is very uncertain as no one really knows what to expect from the 2-5 pitchers. Grady Sizemore leads the lineup, but more questions exist in Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, both of whom need to bounce back from tough 2008 seasons. Kerry Wood is the closer for Cleveland, but I doubt that he’ll spend the entire year on the active roster. A lot of questions remain for this team, but not more than the other teams in the division.

White Sox

The White Sox have many questions as well, but also possess a solid rotation and lineup that make them a contender in the AL Central. Ace Mark Buehrle, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd lead the White Sox’s starting staff and though the second two are not stars, they are solid enough starters to keep Chicago in the game. A lineup with Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, and Paul Konerko won’t be short of power, though their age is certainly a concern. Carlos Quentin and Alexi Ramirez are much younger and offer offensive skills as well. With Bobby Jenks closing out games, the White Sox will be capable of holding leads. Whether or not this team can overtake the Indians will depend upon the health of their lineup and the consistency of their rotation. Continue reading “2009 American League Central Preview” →

October is Approaching

September 19, 2007May 23, 2010Danny Vinik 1 Comment

The Major League Baseball season is coming to an exciting end. With less than two weeks remaining, division races are close and wild cards are up for grabs. The AL East is getting closer by the day as the Red Sox continue to free fall. The Yankees have destroyed Baltimore pitching to close to 2.5 games of the AL East. There are no games remaining between the two teams, but the Yankees recent hot streak combined with the Sox cold streak leaves this division up in the air. The AL Central and West are basically over as the Indians and Angels both have leads over seven games. If the Red Sox can start winning again, they will have to fight with the Indians and Angels for the American League’s best record. All three teams are within half a game of each other, so that competition will likely go down to the final day. Finally is the AL Wild Card, where the Yankees have all, but locked that one up too. Detroit is only behind the Yankees by five games, but the way the Yankees have played lately, the Tigers need to win the rest of their games. That is a quick overview of the American League. My prediction for the first round playoff matchups: Sox vs Indians, Yankees vs Angels Continue reading “October is Approaching” →