Here’s all you need to know about the debt ceiling:

1. John Boehner knows how horrible it would be to breach the debt limit.
2. John Boehner has the power to stop us from breaching it.
3. John Boehner will not allow us to breach the debt ceiling.

It really is that simple, All of the talk around the debt limit is about how Boehner can sell a debt limit raise to his members in the best possible way. It has nothing to do whether he will actually raise it. This is even clearer today as Boehner and House Republican leaders have unveiled a new plan to increase the debt ceiling for a short period. There seem to be a couple of conditions on it – there’s no language yet so it’s unclear what exactly those will be. The White House reiterated as well today that it will only accept a clean debt ceiling increase, no conditions attached. Obama has correctly refused to negotiate over the debt ceiling and I’m confident that he will stick to his position.

As I’ve written before, Boehner could likely come to an agreement with Obama and Senate Democrats that raises the debt ceiling and passes a continuing resolution for a very minor concession (an agreement to negotiate on tax reform possibly). Obama will still stand firm in not negotiating over the debt limit, but a deal like that would be too good to pass up. He would basically receive a clean CR and clean debt ceiling raise for no substantial concessions. The problem for Boehner is not convincing Obama to accept such a deal. It’s convincing his caucus. That’s why he has spent the past ten days demanding that the White House negotiate while slowly ramping down his demands. It’s politicking.

The same thing is happening with this six-week debt ceiling increase. If we hit the debt ceiling deadline without an agreement over the government shutdown, Boehner will be forced to raise it without any concessions. That would be an embarrassing defeat and would infuriate the Tea Party. This short-term debt ceiling hike will give him another month and a half to prove to his conservative members that he’s doing everything in his power to fight the president. He has to come to an agreement over the budget while also raising the debt ceiling. This gives him more time to accomplish that.

Of course, he has to sell this six-week increase to his members as well. That’s why he’s including conditions on it. Without those, the Tea Party would be furious as well. But, as Greg Sargent reports, the White House isn’t going to agree to a short-term debt ceiling increase that’s tied to negotiations over the budget. That won’t happen. So, Boehner now has to rally support for a clean six-week raise that gives him more time to make a deal with the White House where he and Republicans get basically nothing. It’s a terrible position for the speaker to be in, but he doesn’t have a choice since he will not allow us to breach the debt ceiling. Boehner’s new plan just reinforces that message.