Tag Boehner Government Shutdown

The Government Shutdown and Debt Limit Fights Are Merged

Danny Vinik 2 Comments

President Obama reiterated today that he will not negotiate over the debt limit. This has been his stance for the past couple of years after the disaster that was the 2011 negotiations. Using the debt limit as extortion is not acceptable. It’s not how our government works and Obama cannot give in to Republican hostage-taking. The problem is that Obama may not have a choice.

We are currently in day eight of the government shutdown and Treasury will breach the debt ceiling sometime in the next two weeks or so. The only way for Obama to demonstrate that he really means it when he says that he won’t negotiate over the debt ceiling is by forcing Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and House Republicans to raise the debt limit with zero concessions. And guess what? Boehner would reluctantly bring such a bill to the floor at the last minute, because he understands how catastrophic a default would be. Obama knows Boehner understands this and will wait him out if necessary.

The problem comes with the government shutdown. If the two parties come to an agreement before the debt ceiling deadline, that agreement would very likely include a debt ceiling increase. Boehner knows that even if tosses it in there without receiving any concessions, he can still turn around and tell his members that he broke Obama’s pledge not to negotiate. At the same time, Obama can’t reject that.

If the two parties don’t come to an agreement over the government shutdown by the deadline, it will force Boehner to surrender and raise the debt limit without concessions. This would be embarrassing for the speaker and would infuriate his conservative members. He would also lose significant leverage in the government shutdown negotiations. From his comments today, the speaker understands all of this as well.

That’s why I’m confident that a deal will be reached by October 17, the approximate date that the government won’t be able to pay all of its bills. It will take until the 11th hour so that Boehner can return to his conservative members and say he got everything he could out of the president. Both sides will also ramp up the rhetoric and partisan attacks as the time goes by in order to gain leverage in the standoff. Boehner is still hoping that Obama is bluffing, although he knows that is highly unlikely. Obama is still hoping that Boehner will cave and raise the debt ceiling with a clean CR, also highly unlikely to happen. Yet, neither side is going to let go of those hopes and that will force these fights to continue until the last minute.

But they will come to an agreement. It will include a new CR with a debt limit increase and some minor concessions (a new non-binding supercommittee, repeal of the medical device tax, etc.) to placate the Tea Party. Unfortunately, that means Boehner can return to his members and tell them that Obama negotiated over the debt limit. When we hit the debt ceiling in the future, we’re going to go through this entire process again and conservatives will claim that Obama negotiated in 2011 and in 2013. It won’t be true, but it won’t matter. Hopefully then there won’t be a government shutdown fight to muddy the waters. Unfortunately, right now there is.

Americans Reject Using A Government Shutdown To Legislate

Danny Vinik 5 Comments

Yesterday evening, President Obama gave a short speech where he urged Congress to pass a continuing resolution to prevent a government shutdown and criticized Republican leaders for attempting to extract concessions from him without giving anything up themselves.

“[O]ne faction of one party in one house of Congress in one branch of government doesn’t get to shut down the entire government just to refight the results of an election,” Obama said. “Keeping the people’s government open is not a concession to me. Keeping vital services running and hundreds of thousands of Americans on the job is not something you give to the other side. It’s our basic responsibility.”

In fact, Democrats have already agreed to a deal with Republicans where they are giving up something and the GOP isn’t. It’s the clean CR that keeps sequestration. Democrats are giving billions in budget cuts to Republicans, who are giving up nothing. Yet, a small, but powerful group of conservative House Republicans won’t even consider that deal and House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) won’t bring up the bill out of fear of them. If he did take the political risk and bring the clean CR to the floor, it would pass with a large majority, the Senate would pass it and the government shutdown would end, all with a bill in which Democrats make concessions and Republicans don’t.

Now, imagine if Republicans were looking to cut spending beyond sequestration ($986 billion in discretionary spending) to the level laid out in the 2014 Ryan Budget ($967 billion). Under this scenario, the Republicans starting position would still be absurd as the Senate Democrats original 2014 budget set spending at $1,058 billion. The sequester has already trimmed that to a $986 billion. Reducing it all the way to the levels of the Ryan Budget would be an outrageous demand. But at least that demand would have to do with levels of federal spending. There would be a very clear, logical connection between the government funding and the Republican position. But Republicans aren’t asking for anything related to federal spending right now. It’s all about finding ways to undermine Obamacare. That’s what sets this government shutdown apart from previous ones.

This is the 18th government shutdown in U.S. history. Here’s how the causes of them breakdown (thanks to Wonkblog’s Dylan Matthews for the great roundup):

  • 9 were caused by disagreements over spending levels on certain programs, projects, departments or the entire government (1976, 1978, 1981, 1982 #2, 1983, 1987, 1990, 1995, 1996)
  • 4 were caused by disagreements over whether Medicaid dollars could go towards abortion (1977 #1, 1977 #2, 1977 #3, 1979)
  • 2 were caused by disagreements over Civil Rights legislation and a couple of projects (1984 #1, 1984 #2)
  • 1 was caused by disagreements over labor contracts and welfare expansion (1986)
  • 1 was caused by negligence (1982 #1)

In nearly every shutdown, the two parties disagreed on issues related to levels of funding or how federal spending would be used. These were differences of opinion directly related to budget negotiations. In almost every situation, there was an actual negotiation and each side compromised to find a solution. It required a government shutdown, but the structure for negotiations always existed as the initial starting positions for each party were related to federal spending.

There were a couple of occasions where that was not the case, such as when Democrats attempted to enact a Civil Rights law in 1984 and ensure that the FCC enforced the “Fairness Doctrine” in 1987. However, the party looking to use a government shutdown to legislate always lost. Democrats eventually relented on the Civil Rights legislation and the “Fairness Doctrine.” This doesn’t mean that it’s impossible to enact legislation unrelated to federal spending during a government shutdown, but it has never succeeded before. The main reason for that is that negotiations over funding the government are supposed to be just that. They aren’t supposed to be a place where one party can extort the other.

Yet, this is what House Republicans are trying to do. They are trying to force the Administration to delay or defund Obamacare in order to fund the government at a level that everyone agrees on. When a final agreement is reached (or Republicans relent), the CR will almost certainly be set at $986 billion. Republicans aren’t concerned about spending levels. They are using the government shutdown to legislate. This is exactly what President Obama said in his remarks earlier today as well.

“No, this shutdown is not about deficits,” he said. “It’s not about budgets. This shutdown is about rolling back our efforts to provide health insurance to folks who don’t have it. It’s all about rolling back the Affordable Care Act.”

Fortunately, Americans seem to be well aware of what Republicans are trying to do and are wholeheartedly rejecting it. A Quinnipiac Poll today found that 72% of respondents disapprove of Congress using a government shutdown to block Obamacare. Just 22% approve of the tactic. This is in stark contrast to the overall approval rating of the law, which sits at -2% (45% in favor, 47% opposed). That demonstrates that Americans disapprove of the Republican’s tactic of using a government shutdown to legislate.

If the numbers were reversed, Democrats would face political pressure to adjust the law. It would alter the dynamics of government spending negotiations forever – allowing the party not being blamed for the shutdown to enact legislation via extortion. That’s not a proper way for our government to function. By overwhelmingly rejecting the Republican’s strategy, Americans are sending a message loud and clear: using a government shutdown to legislate is not acceptable. Hopefully, Republicans get the message soon enough.

It’s Time for Pelosi and House Dems to Support Boehner

Danny Vinik 6 Comments

The one thing that is severely limiting John Boehner’s ability to negotiate and compromise with Senate Democrats over the budget and pass a clean debt ceiling increase is the threat of losing his speakership. Hard-line conservatives refuse to accept the political reality that Obamacare is the law of the land and are rejecting any budget deal that does not either defund or delay it. It’s an absurd negotiating position and President Obama will never agree to it. That puts us at a stalemate.

There is likely sufficient Democratic support in the House to pass a clean continuing resolution while keeping the sequester if Boehner chooses to bring such a bill to the floor. It probably would break the Hastert Rule (meaning it would not receive majority Republican support), but it would also prevent a government shutdown. However, if Boehner does that, his speakership would almost certainly be over. Here’s Buzzfeed’s Kate Nocera reporting:

“The House needs to completely defund Obamacare, not one penny to Obamacare. If so groups would reluctantly live with a one year no funding deal, but has to fully defund all aspects of Obamacare. Delay without defund or if House funds it in any capacity, then all hell is going to break loose,” said a conservative strategist who was on the call.

The strategist said a one-year delay of funding was “as far as these groups are willing to go.”

…

“If the House does not stick to its guns on this, there will be a major problem with the conservative and tea party base,” the strategist said.

This gives Boehner no maneuvering room. His options are to either defy the tea party base and lose his speakership or shutdown the government.

But there is one way for Boehner to ensure that he keeps his speakership even if he passes a bill that causes a Tea Party revolt: Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and House Democrats should publicly commit to supporting Boehner if he brings up a clean CR and his base challenges him. This gives Boehner political cover to avoid a government shutdown while also demonstrating an ability to work with House Democrats. The Tea Party would go absolutely nuts, but who cares? Congress isn’t going to accomplish anything until after 2014 anyways.

As for Boehner’s personal incentives, if he really is going to retire after 2014, then right now he is looking to improve his legacy. He is (wrongly) considered an ineffective speaker who has accomplished very little. A government shutdown would only make his resume look worse. But avoiding a government shutdown while keeping the sequester would be a Republican victory that he could be proud of. He would undoubtedly take pleasure in reducing the power of the Tea Party as well. Even if he isn’t planning on retiring, a government shutdown increases the odds that Democrats take back the House which would end Boehner’s speakership in 2014 anyways. Avoiding a shutdown is in his personal interest no matter his future plans.

The biggest issue here is that relying on Democratic support makes Boehner a lame-duck speaker. If he still wanted to accomplish anything during the rest of this Congress, he would face such animosity from his base that he would have to rely on Democratic support. That’s a big problem for him. A few weeks ago, I wrote that it was basically too big of a problem to make it worth betraying the Tea Party. Now, the math has changed. Immigration reform is on life-support and Tea Party opposition to any CR that doesn’t defund or delay Obamacare has left Boehner with no good options. Avoiding a government shutdown with a clean CR would be good politics for the Republican Party and also good for the economy. The challenge is to make it politically feasible for Boehner to do. Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats have the ability to do just that and it’s time they did so.

P.S. This would also ensure that we didn’t breach the debt ceiling as Pelosi and Boehner should make a similar deal over that. In fact, its much more important that Pelosi put her support behind Boehner in the debt ceiling standoff so that he feels safe raising the debt ceiling without any concessions from the president. That’s absolutely vital.